Since the dawn of diplomatic engagement, the alliance between China and Cuba has burgeoned into a multi-faceted relationship, steeped in military, political, and economic intricacies. High-ranking officials from both nations have partaken in routine dialogues across various strata of governance, military, and party leadership. Notably, Cuba had the honor of being one of the initial Latin American nations to host Xi Jinping shortly after his ascension to power in 2013. The subsequent years have witnessed bustling exchanges, with Cuban dignitaries making at least four trips to China, including a pivotal rendezvous in April 2024, where He Weidong, the vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, engaged with Cuban General Víctor Rojos Ramos, affirming their “unbreakable friendship.”
In the realm of financial support, China’s investment in Cuba has shown no signs of abating. Despite the myriad of challenges posed by Cuba’s notoriously hostile investment climate, China has injected a staggering $7.8 billion into developmental projects since the turn of the century, as documented by AidData. This influx has materialized into significant initiatives like the ambitious modernization of the Port of Santiago de Cuba, a $120 million project that took shape in 2015, on the heels of Xi’s precedential visit.
The China National Petroleum Corporation has also sought synergies with Cuba’s state-run oil entities, endeavoring to explore both onshore and offshore oil reservoirs. While Cuba’s proven resource reserves are relatively scant, the urgency to amplify domestic oil production has intensified amid a decline in cheap fuel availability triggered by Venezuela’s oil sector demise. Concurrently, Chinese investments have been pivotal in diversifying Cuba’s fossil fuel-reliant energy matrix, exemplified by the pledge to erect 92 solar farms across the island.
Moreover, the technological sphere is witnessing a profound Chinese imprint, with Chinese corporate behemoths like Huawei and ZTE—both under U.S. scrutiny for espionage—acting as the fulcrum of Cuba’s telecommunications framework. Regular technical exchanges between state-backed universities and tech conglomerates in both countries have facilitated a substantial transfer of technological prowess.
Crisis and Opportunity
Cuba currently finds itself in the throes of its most severe economic crisis since the Soviet Union’s demise—one that eclipses even the infamous “special period” of the late 20th century. The catastrophic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic has crippled the tourism sector, a critical vein of revenue for the island. Equally daunting are the restrictions imposed on remittances from abroad, exacerbated by Trump-era policies. Although President Biden’s administration has rolled back some of these restrictions and verbally signaled a thawing of relations with Havana, the government’s oppressive clampdown on mass protests since 2022 has stymied further rapprochement attempts.
These compounded shocks have incited a pervasive economic downturn. Statistics from 2023 reveal a chilling contraction of 2 percent in Cuba’s economy, with inflation rates soaring beyond 30 percent. Severe cuts to fuel subsidies have orchestrated an astronomical 400% increase in gas prices. In a desperate exodus, over one million Cubans—about 10% of the populace—fled between 2021 and 2023, seeking refuge elsewhere. The crisis crescendoed in late October 2024, as widespread blackouts plunged the island into darkness for days, leaving its already beleaguered power grid in a state of disrepair due to crumbling infrastructure and acute financial deficits.
Reports have trickled in from across the Atlantic, indicating that some Cuban citizens have enlisted in the Russian military, drawn by promises of salaries far exceeding local offerings. In the face of government claims denying any involvement, allegations suggest that Havana may have tacitly permitted these mercenary movements, granting the exodus a veneer of legitimacy.
Havana stands at the precipice, clamoring for external support to navigate this trenchant crisis. Yet, with a dearth of steadfast international allies and scant economic reciprocity to proffer, options remain limited. For global powers, Cuba may appear enticing primarily due to its geographical proximity to the United States, rather than a treasure trove of markets or resources.
In this precarious landscape, China’s burgeoning economic and political clout in Cuba may be edging the door ajar for its military and intelligence apparatus. With strategic interests firmly rooted in the Caribbean, China is poised to capitalize on Cuba’s dire need for assistance, establishing a foothold without overt military deployments. The potential for intelligence-sharing between Cuban and Chinese operatives looms large, subtly permeating the fabric of Cuban intelligence operations, rendering detection of such cooperation exceptionally challenging.
Beyond SIGINT
The cooperation in Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) may merely scratch the surface of the mutually beneficial relationship between the two nations. China’s ideological motives to preserve one of the world’s scant remaining communist regimes intertwine with strategic imperatives. Its encroaching influence over Cuba’s budding digital economy has fortified the regime’s capacity to suppress dissent. Notably, during the protests of July 2021, the Cuban government adeptly throttled bandwidth at protest epicenters, hampering grassroots coordination and obstructing the dissemination of evidence against security forces.
China’s long-range aspirations for military outreach are readily apparent, with Cuba emerging as a prime vantage point for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Insights from a recent U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) report have earmarked Cuba as a focal point for potential military facilities, a testament to the strategic allure the island holds for Beijing.
Furthermore, the prospect of intelligence-sharing spans beyond mere digital eavesdropping; Cuba’s adept human intelligence (HUMINT) networks, heavily oriented toward the United States, add another layer of complexity. An arrest in December 2023 of Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. ambassador, unveiled a long-standing infiltration of Cuban assets within U.S. circles, marking a significant breach of national security that underscores Cuba’s extensive HUMINT capabilities.
As U.S. adversaries explore burgeoning opportunities in the Americas, Cuba stands as a linchpin—with its potential to forge more overt military and defense ties particularly concerning. Russia’s deployment of naval forces to Cuban waters in June 2024 underscores this reality, suggesting a renewed willingness to project power in the region.
Policy Recommendations
The resurgence of Cuba as a potential launchpad for U.S. adversaries amidst great power competition necessitates circumspection from Washington. Historical precedents, notably the Cuban Missile Crisis, evoke memories of narrowly avoided catastrophe. Although the immediate threat of significant offensive military capabilities emerging in Cuba is not imminent, a gradual intelligence or military presence represents a growing policy challenge for the United States and its allies.
To navigate this nuanced terrain, the following recommendations warrant earnest consideration:
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Cultivate Transparency and Open Dialogue: Drawing lessons from history, it’s paramount to foster open channels of communication to mitigate any potential misunderstandings. Past missteps during the Soviet era have proven that miscalculations can spiral into far more significant crises, necessitating vigilance and clarity of intentions.
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Fortify Civilian Infrastructure against SIGINT Vulnerabilities: While modern military communications often employ encryption, civilian sectors remain susceptible to interception. Strategic tech firms must bolster their defenses, recognizing the growing interest from adversarial powers in exploiting vulnerabilities for intelligence gains.
- Counter Digital Authoritarianism: U.S. support for initiatives aimed at expanding access to unregulated digital technologies and secure communication avenues in Cuba can serve as a bulwark against oppressive regimes. Facilitating avenues for greater internet freedom would empower citizens and enhance transparency.
In summation, as the geopolitical chessboard reshuffles, the stakes surrounding Cuba’s role as a potential operational hub for adversaries heighten. A concerted effort to monitor, understand, and engage proactively will be indispensable for the United States and its allies in safeguarding stability in the region.
