The BJP’s audacious campaign slogan, Ab ki baar char so paar, during the general elections seemingly boomeranged back upon them. One could almost imagine an alternate reality where they transitioned seamlessly to Ab ki baar do so paar amidst the Maharashtra Assembly elections. To the astonishment of political pundits and party analysts alike, the BJP’s alliance—dubbed Mahayuti—surged astoundingly, clinching an impressive 231 out of the 288 seats. This unforeseen triumph evaded the foresight of any major or minor BJP leader, election expert, or journalistic heavyweight.
The electorate’s composition is fascinating: the BJP claimed 132 seats, the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena took home 57, while Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) garnered 41. Consequently, the Maharashtra Assembly will find itself devoid of a recognized opposition for the next five years, with the erstwhile opposition coalition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), stumbling to merely 50 seats—a mere shadow of what they once wielded. Within the MVA, the Congress managed 20, the Uddhav Thackeray-infused Shiv Sena faltered, and the NCP under Sharad Pawar was left gasping.
Prior to the polls, speculation vacillated wildly, postulating that the competing alliances were neck and neck. Exit polls clung to the notion of Mahayuti achieving a clear majority, yet the actual aftermath proved to be an electrifying twist. For the MVA, it was a resounding defeat, while for Mahayuti, it was a jewel they had not dared to covet. Indeed, this marks a historic crescendo, with no party achieving such a sweeping victory in Maharashtra’s political arena for the last seventy years. Let’s unravel the dynamics propelling this electoral landslide.
1. Women Power: A Well-Planned Strategy
The shadows of the 2019 Assembly elections haunted the Mahayuti. That year, they only managed to sweep 17 out of the 48 constituencies, awakening a new resolve in their campaign strategy. Thus, the inception of the “Ladki Bahin Yojana” was birthed—a brainchild borrowed from Madhya Pradesh’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s successful initiative. With echoes of devotion to women voters, this scheme unfolded in Maharashtra, potentially acting as a crucial element in Mahayuti’s triumphant arsenal.
Maharashtra, with its colossal electorate of 9.7 crore and a robust turnout of 66%—with women comprising a significant chunk—became the stage where the “Ladki Bahin” initiative shone. Over one crore women were promised a financial lifeline of ₹1,500 monthly, with further assurances of ₹2,100 should Mahayuti secure power again. The state government’s budget allocated ₹46,000 crore to this program, igniting enthusiasm across households. Additionally, other welfare initiatives, like three free gas cylinders annually for women, sweetened the deal.
2. A Farmer’s Paradise: Welfare Schemes
In this electoral skirmish, provisions such as waivers on electricity bills and comprehensive crop insurance blossomed for farmers, bolstering their allegiance towards Mahayuti. Educational fee waivers and other welfare schemes offered succor to OBC families as well.
3. Healing the Political Rift
The BJP’s calculated maneuvering that fractured the Shiv Sena and the NCP backfired initially, arousing ire among voters in the previous Lok Sabha elections. However, fast forward five months to the Assembly polls, and the political climate had drastically shifted. By adopting a reconciliatory stance throughout their alliance journey, the BJP seemingly softened voter perceptions, winning back the confidence of those who had shown discontent previously.
4. The Grassroots Army
Mahayuti’s campaign was reinforced by an army of devoted activists. Possessing considerable resources and entrenched institutional networks, they commanded an impressive electoral infrastructure. The BJP’s strategic leanings not only facilitated logistical support but also enhanced their appeal among the electorate.
5. RSS’s Undeniable Influence
A crucial player in this electoral saga was the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), rallying their vast networks to revitalize the BJP’s fortunes. The Sangh mobilized thousands across Maharashtra in a series of high-stakes meetings, connecting with the voters at an intimate level, pivotal in influencing outcomes.
6. The Daring ‘By Hook or Crook’ Tactic
Under Modi and Shah’s leadership, the BJP adopted an assertive ‘by hook or crook’ policy in Maharashtra, employing a host of questionable methods—ranging from financial motivations to potential abuses of power. Instances of foul play, including money distribution antics and politically charged mobilization, raised eyebrows, yet seemingly solidified BJP’s footing.
7. A Sluggish Opposition
The vibrancy of the Mahayuti campaign starkly contrasted the MVA’s struggle. With Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray merely standing as shadows of their former selves, the Congress’s mismanagement loomed large. Confident that the prior Lok Sabha support would reoccur, they faltered in energizing their campaign, ultimately leaving the coffers of political influence wide open for Mahayuti’s take.
Future Outlook: A Precarious Political Landscape
As power dynamics stabilize under Eknath Shinde’s leadership, fragmentation among allies remains a lurking possibility. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena may appear diminished, yet its foundational roots in Mumbai could ensure a resilient future. Meanwhile, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, albeit lacking ideological cohesion, may still persist, riding the waves of political expediency.
The shadows of Sharad Pawar’s long-standing political legacy loom as an era potentially draws to a close. For nearly six decades, he’s deftly maneuvered the intricacies of Maharashtra politics. Modi and Shah’s orchestrated game-changer has rendered the ensuing political landscape ripe for momentous shifts.
Overall, the electoral outcome heralds a period of both opportunity and peril for Maharashtra’s diverse tapestry—a landscape that must navigate the pressing challenges of caste, identity, and welfare in the years ahead. The unfolding drama promises not just political intrigue, but the very recalibration of Maharashtra’s identity.
Vinod Shirsath, author and political thinker, is the Editor of Marathi weekly, SAADHANA.
