The night unfolded with an air of anticipation, expecting both Labor and the Liberals to revel in triumph. Yet, as dawn approached, the glimmers of hope had seriously dimmed for the Liberals—while Labor, buoyed yet battling uncertainty, faced its own set of challenges.
Benchmarking against the tumultuous 2017 elections—where Colin Barnett’s government crumbled under public discontent—became the lens through which both parties calibrated their ambitions. As ballots were counted with decreasing cadence overnight, Labor, to its astonishment, eclipsed expectations by clinching 40 seats.
In a startling twist, while the Liberals celebrated a more than doubling of their presence in the lower house, reality set in as they clutched a meager five seats—an alarming statistic that dismantled any aspirations of emerging as a credible challenger come the 2029 elections. Alas, the specter of Labor’s dominance appeared poised to stretch into a fourth term.
Yet, beneath the surface, an unexpected current began to ripple through the political milieu—one that could redefine the very landscape of Western Australia’s governance for years to come. The ways in which both parties navigate this emerging tide may well determine their respective fates.
Splitting the swing
An intriguing paradox emerged with the pronounced 17 percent swing against Labor—typically a feather in the cap for the conservatives, signaling the potential for resurrection amidst the ruins of Mark McGowan’s once-mighty legacy from the COVID-19 election of 2021.
However, this swing turned out to be a fleeting sigh of relief for the Liberals; a meager five percent returned to them, merely a sliver of the electoral support they’d lost in the previous election cycle. The Nationals only captured one percent, leaving both parties grappling with the shattering reality that a substantial portion of the electorate had shifted towards smaller parties and independent candidates.
The Greens anticipate wielding significant influence in the next parliament. (ABC News: Cason Ho)
Analysts like Kos Samaras attribute this fragmented shift to the evolving dynamics of millennial voters aged 29 to 44, who constitute an increasingly significant segment of the electorate. “The outer suburbs are simmering with cost-of-living grievances, creating a volatile political atmosphere,” he noted, highlighting the considerable role they play in both preserving Labor’s hold on traditional conservative territories and influencing upcoming federal elections.
Surprise losses
For the Liberals, the stark realization of their struggles hit hard as results trickled in, even amidst the backdrop of leader Libby Mettam’s gathering.
“Today has been tough, but Cottesloe will shine brightly for us,” deputy leader Steve Martin assured his comrades at their rally, desperately clinging to semblances of hope amid a bruising campaign.
Libby Mettam strides through the election night gathering in Perth’s suburbs. (ABC News: Jake Sturmer)
Holding onto Cottesloe—the prized gem in the Liberal crown—was one of the scant reasons for celebration, encapsulating the bruising reality of the night. Their cleanup in Carine and Kalamunda was attributed to localized campaigning prowess rather than any significant momentum, as sources from both camps concurred.
Retaining Churchlands felt positive, but a minor swing revealed the significant challenges both factions faced. As the results unfolded, Basil Zempilas asserted, “If I secure the win, splendid; if not, Labor, well done—hats off to the victor.”
Yet, the close results were not quite the triumph Zempilas envisioned, instead underscoring the effectiveness of Labor’s relentless campaign strategies alongside the pressure from rising independents.
Crushing disappointments fell upon anticipated strongholds like Warren-Blackwood, Bateman, Scarborough, and South Perth—seats long considered Liberal bastions. “They must begin searching for new territories to claim,” advised Samaras, highlighting a stark truth: the political terrain was shifting.
“Just as Labor faced in the east, accumulating losses to the Greens isn’t merely a financial challenge; it necessitates a reevaluation of strategies and identifying new battlegrounds—something the Liberal Party has yet to grasp,” he noted.
What does it mean for Labor?
Despite the palpable swing, WA Labor emerged from this election cycle with a sense of striking accomplishment.
Not only did the party preserve its commanding majority, but it also retained several seats—unexpected gains from 2021 that many had predicted would revert to Conservative hands, notably Scarborough, Riverton, and South Perth.
With a robust mandate to push forward with their policy agenda, Labor may however face the uphill battle of navigating a newly configured upper house, necessitating negotiations with an altered crossbench.
Libby Mettam amidst media frenzy at the Liberal Party gathering in Perth. (ABC News: Jake Sturmer)
Samaras pronounced WA Labor as “the finest Labor branch in the nation,” adding, “People back east are enviously dreaming of replicating these outcomes.”
“Yes, a correction has occurred, yet the primary votes in outer suburban seats are astronomical,” he emphasized, highlighting the staggering support for Labor.
“Rita Saffioti’s constituency skirts close to 60 percent—a statistic often unseen in the annals of Australian politics.”
With several MPs stepping down and a multitude of Labor members retaining their positions, the impetus for maneuvering within the cabinet ranks is palpable, with notable figures like Kingsley MP Jessica Stojkovski and Kimberley MP Divina D’Anna emerging as potential cabinet contenders.
Lessons for a third term
The slow disconnection from the mainstream political titans has caught hold in WA, evident in the recent electoral performances.
At present, it’s the Liberals facing the brunt of this shift—but Labor, too, needs to heed this evolving narrative. Holding onto a significant majority provides a cushion, yet navigating a third term is notoriously fraught with hurdles.
Roger Cook and his administration must strive to glean constructive insights from this electoral outcome while remaining undistracted by their substantial win.
Simultaneously, for the Liberals, their third consecutive election reiterates an increasingly ominous message about their survival prospects, highlighting their ongoing difficulty in transforming electoral lessons into tangible gains at the ballot box.
Conversations about redefining their approach cannot be postponed any longer if they wish to stay relevant in the political dialogue.
