In a thrilling clash set against the backdrop of the 2024 FCS Playoffs, No. 6 Incarnate Word gears up to face off against the formidable No. 3 South Dakota State. Fans should mark their calendars for December 14, with kickoff slated for 11 a.m. CT, broadcasted live on ESPN. The previous encounter? A decisive 45-24 victory for the Jackrabbits back in Week 2.
The stakes could not be higher—the victors will ascend to the semifinals, pitting them against the winner of the No. 7 Mercer versus No. 2 North Dakota State showdown.
2024 FCS Playoff Bracket
2024 Prediction Record: 170-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: South Dakota State (-19)
Series History: South Dakota State leads 1-0
Key Players: South Dakota State
Mark Gronowski (QB): 185-for-296 (62.5%), 2,341 Passing Yards, 19 Passing TDs, 6 INTs, 313 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs
Amar Johnson (RB): 160 Carries, 1,013 Rushing Yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 Rushing TDs
Griffin Wilde (WR): 63 Receptions, 1,014 Receiving Yards, 16.1 YPC, 10 Receiving TDs
Adam Bock (LB): 83 Total Tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 4 QBHs
Tucker Large (DB): 22 Total Tackles, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs
Key Players: Incarnate Word
Zach Calzada (QB): 310-for-477 (64.99%), 3,533 Passing Yards, 34 Passing TDs, 8 INTs, 4 Rushing TDs
Jalen Walthall (WR): 76 Receptions, 1,224 Receiving Yards, 16.1 YPC, 14 Receiving TDs
Roy Alexander (WR): 87 Receptions, 1,016 Receiving Yards, 11.7 YPC, 12 Receiving TDs
Dune Smith (LB): 76 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 1 INT, 3 QBHs
Mister Williams (LB): 75 Total Tackles, 13 TFLs, 4 Sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBUs, 11 QBHs, 5 FFs
In their initial contest, Incarnate Word applied pressure, yet South Dakota State surged ahead in the latter half. Both squads have evolved since that Week 2 encounter, yet key factors shaped that initial game: the Jackrabbits converted a staggering 10-of-13 third downs while stifling Incarnate Word’s red zone endeavors. The Cardinals must hone their red zone efficiency this weekend while devising strategies to halt the Jackrabbits’ momentum on third downs.
Mark Gronowski, the Jackrabbits’ quarterback, is heating up, having tossed nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns sans turnovers. Griffin Wilde, thrust into the spotlight due to injuries, has accrued 1,014 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, but the team lacks another reliable pass catcher after him.
Compounding the situation, Incarnate Word conceded a hefty 230 rushing yards during their earlier battle. South Dakota State’s ground game has been flourishing, surpassing the 200-yard mark in four of their last five contests. Amar Johnson spearheads this attack with 1,013 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Angel Johnson is clawing back to form post-injury. The Cardinals have proven their mettle by limiting four of their last five adversaries to under 100 rushing yards, making this matchup a critical battleground.
Throughout the season, Incarnate Word has wrestled with establishing their run game against the Jackrabbits. Fortunately, quarterback Zach Calzada showcased some of his finest play of the year. Completing 65% of his passes for 3,533 yards, 34 touchdowns alongside eight interceptions, Calzada has two outstanding wide receivers as company. Walthall and Alexander combined for more than 2,000 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns, putting immense pressure on the Jackrabbits.
Since yielding 350 passing yards to Incarnate Word, South Dakota State’s defense has tightened its grip, restricting ten rivals to under 200 yards and boasting the second-best coverage grade nationally. Tucker Large, previously sidelined, has returned to lead with three interceptions.
The real revelation for South Dakota State lies in the emergence of a formidable defensive line. Bryce Hawthorne, a standout tackle, has delivered 3.5 tackles for loss coupled with 2.5 sacks across the last two games. With elite linebackers like Adam Bock and Caleb Francel, the Jackrabbits are consistently creating negative plays on over 10% of their defensive snaps.
Watch for the underrated powerhouse of Incarnate Word’s defense, which excels in generating turnovers—forcing an impressive turnover on 3.3% of snaps. Led by the dynamic duo of Dune Smith and Mister Williams, the Cardinal linebackers pose a serious threat, tallying 24.5 tackles for loss and ten sacks between them. Winning the turnover battle while keeping South Dakota State in check will be paramount if Incarnate Word hopes to upset the favored Jackrabbits.
On the offensive front, while Incarnate Word possesses the sheer talent to win one-on-one battles, their inconsistency could tip the scales—lulls in their performance may mean the difference between a stunning upset and a repeat defeat at the hands of South Dakota State. Currently, the Jackrabbits are executing at an elite national championship level; expect them to unleash a relentless rushing offense that seeks to wear down Incarnate Word and forge a path to the semifinals for the fifth consecutive season.
Prediction: South Dakota State (42-21)
