(UPDATED, 5:53 p.m., with final results from legislative District 26.)
On an electrifying Tuesday evening, a pronounced shift to the right rippled through the nation and, of course, Idaho echoed this political sentiment.
In another unmistakably red Election Night, the results unfurled with an anticipated predictability. Donald Trump, in a display of unwavering support, clinched Idaho’s electoral votes yet again—boasting a commanding 67.1% majority that surpassed his prior showings in both 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, incumbents Mike Simpson and Russ Fulcher sauntered through lackluster re-election campaigns, barely breaking a sweat.
But let’s pivot to the state-level arena—where the interplay of policies and politics casts profound shadows on K-12 and higher education. This election saw voters decisively cast aside the Proposition 1 initiative—a proposed overhaul of the electoral process that sought to dismantle a closed Republican primary system increasingly veering towards extreme ideologies. The Republicans fortified their grip on the Statehouse, adding three seats to their already formidable supermajority—an outcome likely to resonate in discussions around private school choice and the Idaho Launch initiative come 2025.
For the Idaho Republican Party, the night was illustrious, particularly with the repudiation of Prop. 1 shocking in both substance and margin.
As dawn broke Wednesday, the anti-Prop. 1 vote stood at a staggering 69.8%. To grasp the enormity of this statistic, consider that back in 2012, voters overwhelmingly denounced the so-called “Students Come First” reforms, which many derided as the notorious “Luna Laws.” The once-dreaded “laptop law,” a push to equip every high school student with a laptop, was discarded by 66.7% of voters. Prop. 1’s failure to even eclipse this figure is a dubious badge of dishonor.
This electoral avalanche not only signifies a sharp decline for Reclaim Idaho, the coalition that aimed to alter the electoral landscape but also starkly contrasts their previous successes. The Medicaid expansion initiative breezed through in 2018. In 2022, their Quality Education Act maneuver compelled Governor Brad Little to summon the Legislature to enact preemptive measures—securing $410 million annually for educational funding. Now, their momentum feels like a distant echo.
The vote against Prop. 1 resounded as a vehement dismissal of its proponents’ arguments. The campaign hinged on the allure of a more inclusive “top-four” primary, appealing to universal voter engagement. Despite amassing millions, much of it from external benefactors, the pitch fell flat.
House Speaker Mike Moyle didn’t miss the chance to celebrate this victory, proclaiming through a midnight news release that “far-left, out-of-state activist groups” had attempted to meddle unsuccessfully in Idaho’s electoral affairs. His own political action committee fiercely contributed $321,000 to campaigns fighting Prop. 1.
A coalition of Republican critics, from the likes of Moyle to Governor Brad Little, united against Prop. 1’s perceived pitfalls—chiefly its ranked-choice voting element. A clever maneuver considering a Boise State University survey indicated widespread voter discontent with this very proposal. Unsurprisingly, it flopped spectacularly in Idaho, mirroring trends in other states.
The result? Opponents of Idaho’s closed GOP primary may have squandered their chance to instigate meaningful change. Instead, the Republican Party stands emboldened, maintaining an unyielding grip on primary processes.
As for the supermajority in the Legislature, its endurance comes as no shock. Heading into Election Day, many Republican candidates basked in the security of favorable districts. The anticipated Democratic gains in swing regions failed to materialize, with Republicans sweeping District 6—home to Moscow and the University of Idaho—and snatching seats in the West Boise District 15 and Pocatello’s District 29. Additionally, the GOP claimed a House seat in District 26, which includes Blaine, Jerome, and Lincoln counties.
Crunching the numbers reveals a staggering 29-6 Senate supermajority and a 61-9 House supermajority.
Historically, the GOP’s seat gains in presidential election years are to be expected; the Democrats’ success stories are few and far between—with only one instance since 1969 where they picked up seats in such cycles. The current results follow a concerted Democratic effort to field candidates, yet only 15 of 81 campaigns yielded victories—a paltry 19% success rate.
Moreover, the Democrats face a geographic crisis, with only Sen. James Ruchti of Pocatello and Sen. Ron Taylor of Hailey representing districts outside Boise. The legislative landscape starkly outlines a party nearly eradicated from the political map.
This election’s ramifications extend far beyond mere numbers. Each vote looms large in upcoming debates over private school choice, prompting a flurry of monetary investment from advocates seeking a foothold in the Legislature.
The impending session promises a more conservatively inclined legislative body—setting the stage for a potentially contentious discourse on critical issues like the Idaho Launch program and diversity initiatives in higher education.
As the dust settles, the crushed spirits of the Democratic ambition lay bare before us, while the Idaho GOP prepares to select its leadership, likely shifting crucial committees further right. The winds of change post-Election Night 2024 hint at an unprecedented trajectory for Idaho’s educational policy landscape.
Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday, though timely topics may cause shifts to the schedule—such as this one, published on Wednesday, Nov. 6.
