In a landscape fraught with uncertainty, the stakes are towering high for the upcoming US presidential elections on November 5. Dr. Anthony Gonzales, a retired former chief of the Institute of International Relations at UWI, St Augustine, has boldly pronounced that a triumph for Vice President Kamala Harris would resonate more positively for Trinidad and Tobago than a victory for the Republican challenger, Donald Trump.
Gonzales, invoking not only intuition but also the pulse of recent polling data, which suggests a slight edge for Harris—a three-point lead in Iowa, a bastion of Republican support—suggests that she is on the ascent. “My gut feeling, though devoid of absolute evidence, leans towards Harris emerging victorious,” he remarked, underlining his belief with conviction.
Meanwhile, Trump, a figure described as ‘his own worst enemy,’ presents a certain peril, according to Gonzales. “Harris is steadily gaining ground as the election draws near. Voters are beginning to recognize Trump as a looming threat to their country’s integrity.” In Gonzales’ perspective, the core supporters rallying behind Trump embody the demographics of white supremacists and Christian nationalists, revealing the deep social fractures defining this electoral battle.
“Harris seems to be garnering substantial support, especially from women. I predict she will clinch victory by a margin of two or three points,” he asserted passionately.
This confidence extends beyond individual states to a broader national map, with Gonzales asserting she’s making notable strides in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, as well as southern enclaves like Georgia and North Carolina, and the western states of Arizona and Nevada. “My inclination is to predict her win,” he reiterated.
What’s more intriguing is his contemplation on the implications of a Harris win for Trinidad and Tobago. He contrasted this potential outcome with Trump’s previous threats—imposing substantial tariffs, ranging from 20% to 60%, on goods flowing into the United States. This, among other anti-immigration measures heralded by Trump, could present dire consequences for many. “The threat of mass deportations looms, alongside the possibility of residency statuses being revoked post-election,” he added.
From a climate change perspective, Gonzales contended that a Harris administration may well foster a more positive direction for Trinidad and Tobago. “Climate change is an undeniable reality, evidenced by the increasingly severe wildfires, floods, and hurricanes shaking the global landscape. Trump’s previous withdrawal from pivotal accords like the Paris Agreement only exacerbates that reality,” he argued. “Should he return, the specter of climate change will linger unjustly over us.”
Moreover, Gonzales raised concerns about the broader implications of a Trump victory on democratic values within the US. Reflecting on the composition of Trump’s inner circle during his initial term, he noted: “He was kept in check by military officials; however, this time, his return could herald a more radical shift with his own hand-picked administration.”
Addressing inquiries about the future of a Trinidad and Venezuela gas venture, Gonzales painted a murky picture. “Trump’s unpredictability raises questions about how he might alter the current diplomatic landscape,” he remarked, showing that the establishment under President Biden, which has permitted Chevron access to Venezuelan oil, may not withstand the capricious nature of Trump’s policies.
“Trump embodies a mercurial nature; his policy directions are notoriously hard to anticipate,” he cautioned, considering Trump’s isolationist tendencies juxtaposed with the dynamics of US national interests.
As this intricate electoral tapestry weaves itself, Gonzales noted one final query, pondering how Trump intends to reconcile his promise to extinguish the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict—a complex challenge in a profoundly complicated global scenario.
Yet amidst these swirling uncertainties and fluctuating strategies, one thing remains clear: the political fates of Harris and Trump are not merely American concerns, but threads that intertwine deeply with the future and stability of nations like Trinidad and Tobago.
