Friedrich Merz’s intricate ascent towards the German chancellery weaves through the annals of the federal republic’s turbulent history, a narrative steeped in the pro-European ethos and Western allegiance that defined Helmut Kohl’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) during the 1990s. From his role as co-leader of the Bundestag group in 2000, a position he lost to Angela Merkel, Merz has become a figure echoing the more skeptical and insular sentiments emerging within mid-2020s Germany.
This backdrop is pivotal in understanding the CDU’s polling strength, hovering around 30% to 34% ahead of the imminent federal election set for February 23, 2024. While the electoral outcome remains opaque in these unpredictable political waters—and given Merz’s relatively untested candidacy—a victory might resonate with the prevailing zeitgeist across the nation.
Delving deeper into Merz’s foreign policy ideology reveals the potential ramifications of a CDU triumph on Germany’s international standing, raising a critical question: Can Europe’s cornerstone nation reclaim a leadership role it has largely relinquished in recent years?
The erstwhile “traffic light” coalition, comprising Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the center-left Greens, and the right-liberal Free Democrats (FDP), framed the relationship between German and European interests as interdependent yet frequently operated contrary to that commitment. This unpredictable nature led to last-minute changes of heart in Brussels and a hesitancy that delayed crucial sanctions against Russia, resisted a common borrowing framework, and opposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Relations with Paris and Warsaw have notably soured, only adding to the perception that Germany has gone missing in action on the European stage.
In stark contrast to the proactive leadership of Kohl and the more competent Merkel, today’s Germany appears adrift, a mere passenger in an ever-turbulent sea of geopolitical tumult. Whether Merz can alter this trajectory hinges upon the delicate interplay of three principal tenets of his foreign policy—each carrying its own complexities and potential conflicts.
The first pillar: A fervent commitment to an integrated Europe. Merz emerged during the transformational Kohl era—an epoch marked by reunification and the Maastricht Treaty. His tenure in the European Parliament from 1989 to 1994 saw him actively shaping the single market’s contours. With a profound admiration for Wolfgang Schäuble, Merz embraces the notion of a “Europe of concentric circles,” strategically centered on Franco-German cooperation. His calls for a revamped German approach towards both France and Poland signal a yearning for a cohesive European front, underscoring his criticisms of the incumbent leadership’s reliance on American backing for Ukraine.
Amongst his most striking remarks, Merz recently admonished the current administration’s painfully passive stance, famously declaring, “Peace can be found in any cemetery. It is our freedom that we must defend.”
The second pillar: A market-liberal Atlanticism. Merz’s personal biography is rich with connections to the United States and the Anglosphere, establishing a nexus that transcends the foundational “Westbindung” of Germany’s post-war identity. His career, which flourished in transatlantic business circles post his marginalization by Merkel, has fostered close ties with figures championing US-German relations. This affinity, however, is grounded in a pragmatic acknowledgment of the shifting geopolitical landscape; he recognizes Biden as possibly the last stabilizing Atlanticist leader, calling for a recalibration of transatlantic dynamics.
The third pillar unveils a more introspective side: A decidedly German-centric outlook. In his conservative Europeanism, Merz embodies the apprehensive nationalism of the contemporary era, often echoing criticisms reminiscent of Scholz’s lackluster policies. From labeling Ukrainian refugees as “social tourists” to advocating for earlier border controls, he sometimes wades into narrow definitions of national interest that could challenge broader European objectives.
As these three pillars intertwine—Europeanism, Atlanticism, and a “Germany first” mentality—the contours of a potential Merz chancellorship begin to materialize. It is likely that in his government, initiatives at the nexus of these tenets would flourish, particularly where they align with German corporate interests, navigating the treacherous waters of a contentious American relationship.
However, the implications of a Merz leadership would diverge from overt declarations of European autonomy, instead aiming to bolster NATO and reinvigorate Germany’s standing within Europe while simultaneously wrestling with internal disputes over migration, economic burdens, and fiscal integration.
The outcome of the coming federal election remains clouded with uncertainty. The nature of the coalition that emerges will significantly shape Germany’s response to pressing challenges, as will the electoral performance of fringe parties, potentially pressuring Merz’s commitments to both European solidarity and the transatlantic alliance.
In navigating these complex dynamics, Merz’s advisement circle will play a critical role, potentially influencing his foreign policy trajectory should he ascend to the chancellery. The interplay of his advisors’ voices—prominent figures like Thorsten Frei, Jacob Schrot, and Daniel Andrä—could amplify or temper the inherent tensions among Merz’s ideological pillars.
Ultimately, Germany finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with old paradigms that no longer sustain its economic and security needs. Whether a Merz-led coalition can confront these multifaceted challenges boldly and cohesively, while redefining its relationship with Europe as a partner rather than an impediment, will determine its pathway in an increasingly complex global landscape.
