In a notable shift, Chinese markets have reacted with evident enthusiasm following revelations from the recent Central Economic Work Conference, an annual gathering that delineates the government’s economic directive. This year, under the watchful eye of Chief Economist Ding Shuang from Standard Chartered, a chorus of more proactive initiatives aimed at reigniting demand and upholding stable economic growth has been announced.
The conference, which unfolded in Beijing over two days, has set the stage for China’s economic trajectory in 2025. Its key highlights resonated strongly with earlier discussions held by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee earlier in the week, particularly the renewed commitment to promoting domestic consumption and ensuring robust growth.
In an interview with CGTN, Ding illuminated how the conference’s robust focus on proactive fiscal policies was embraced favorably by market participants. “The communication exceeded expectations,” he remarked, referring to the proposed shift from a cautious monetary policy to one that is “appropriately loose.” This, he indicated, has ignited a wave of optimism within the market, envisioning extensive opportunities ahead—ranging from revitalizing fiscal initiatives to stabilizing both the housing and stock markets.
Encouragingly, Ding highlighted palpable signs of economic resilience, citing favorable indicators that suggest China is on course to achieve its ambitious growth target of five percent for 2024. The recent data from key metrics—manufacturing PMI, industrial production, and retail sales—indicate possible economic rebounds as the year draws to a close. “The confidence exuded by the Political Bureau bodes well for achieving the growth goal,” Ding asserted.
However, amidst this optimism lurks a cautionary tale. Ding acknowledged persistent obstacles, particularly the lackluster domestic demand and the economy’s lingering dependence on exports. “Weak domestic consumption alongside a remarkable performance in foreign trade has characterized this year’s economic landscape,” he cautioned. Estimates suggest that net exports could contribute about 20 percent to 2024’s growth.
Peering into the horizon, Ding identified potential trade frictions with the United States as a significant threat—especially if a second Trump administration materializes. Yet, he expressed confidence in China’s preparedness. “The looming risk of a trade war represents the most pressing challenge for China’s economic outlook in 2025,” he said. Nevertheless, he also reassured that the Chinese government appears poised to enact more expansionary policies to stimulate domestic demand, countering the effects of high tariffs.
Furthermore, Ding emphasized that diversification strategies within China’s corporate sector are evolving, creating a buffer against U.S. tariffs. “China’s enterprises are increasingly spreading their trade and investment wings globally, reducing their dependency on U.S. markets,” he explained. Currently, the integration of Chinese goods and services into the global supply chain signifies that even amidst strained relations, these products will continue to find pathways into the U.S. market.
Meanwhile, the economic dynamism of Guangdong Province, often heralded as China’s southern powerhouse, has surged impressively—reporting a striking 10% increase in foreign trade from January to November of this year. Official statistics revealed that the province’s import-export activity climbed to a staggering 8.27 trillion yuan (approximately 1.14 trillion U.S. dollars), significantly outpacing the national growth average by 5.1 percentage points according to the Guangdong Sub-Administration of the General Administration of Customs of China.
Delving deeper into the figures unveils an inspiring narrative: exports swelled by 8.7%, touching 5.37 trillion yuan, while imports soared to an impressive 2.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% uptick year-on-year. This remarkable performance underscores Guangdong’s vital role, with its foreign trade constituting 20.8% of the nation’s total.
