Hamas recognizes that its ability to maintain authority over civilian areas is pivotal for its continued dominance in the Palestinian landscape following the conflict. Therefore, the international community must Act swiftly to establish a robust alternative governance structure.
Since the initiation of Israeli military operations against Hamas last year, a significant portion of the group’s military assets has faced severe destruction or has been rendered ineffective. Nevertheless, the dust has not yet settled on the battlefield. Despite a pause in extreme hostilities, Hamas remains unyielded. While Israel directs its energy toward fortifying buffer zones and executing targeted raids to thwart any military resurgence from Hamas, it has overlooked a crucial aspect: the movement’s intricate web of shadow governance.
For months, Hamas has been strategically maneuvering to reclaim control over civilian spaces in Gaza, particularly in regions where Israeli forces have receded. There exists a calculated effort to assert governance across various zones, with strongholds established in the central, southern, and northern regions of the territory. The movement is acutely aware that this shadow governance is essential for maintaining its stature as a primary player in the post-conflict Palestinian scenario. It appears Hamas leaders are engaging in a waiting game; they believe the key to their survival is simply to endure until the global powers compel Israel to withdraw from Gaza. Just as previous shadow governing entities have done, Hamas is strategically positioned to reinvigorate itself when the conditions become favorable again.
However, allowing such a scenario to unfold is unacceptable. The demise of Hamas’s senior hierarchy, particularly military chief Yahya al-Sinwar, should catalyze an immediate push to lay the groundwork for a new governance framework that offers the citizens of Gaza a genuine alternative.
Gaza One Year Later
To fathom how Hamas has managed to sustain its governance as the war drags on, one must delve into the humanitarian quagmire and the crumbled state of civilian infrastructure in Gaza. International assessments reveal that an alarming 45-75% of the territory’s civilian framework has been obliterated. Data from the World Health Organization indicates only seventeen of Gaza’s thirty-six hospitals remain operational, while the UN reports that an overwhelming 87% of educational institutions have suffered damage. The region’s economy teeters on the brink, with unemployment soaring to a staggering 80%. Amidst this descent into chaos, a thriving black market persists, providing a stark contrast to the overall collapse. In response to this dire situation, Hamas has deployed various tactics to assert its presence on the ground, offering essential emergency services to its people, while diligently undermining any emergent contenders seeking to fill its void.
Hamas’s Shadow Governance
At the war’s inception, Hamas’s bureaucratic apparatus boasted thousands of officials spanning numerous ministries—foreign affairs, justice, finance, and more. While only a fraction of these individuals engaged in militancy, this extensive bureaucracy was vital for the movement’s hold over Gaza. However, as the war has continued, Hamas has dwindled to a mere shadow of its previous self; most ministries lay dormant, a few clinging to life yet focused more on spreading propaganda than actual governance duties. The Ministry of Information, for instance, disseminates disinformation via platforms such as Telegram, while the Ministry of Economy concerns itself with price manipulations and tax collections.
Despite the fragmentation of its bureaucratic structure, Hamas persists in employing its limited resources to maintain control. In areas with semi-functional Hamas administrations, local workers strive to keep essential services, such as waste management and fundamental infrastructure repairs, operational. In regions where local governance has crumbled, Hamas has established emergency committees to wield authority, even dispatching response teams post-airstrikes to assert its presence. Additionally, errant educational initiatives for displaced populations remain aligned with Hamas’s ideological vision.
Recent efforts, such as the September polio vaccination campaign, underline Hamas’s continued organizational capability, cleverly leveraging the international operation to bolster its image. The Hamas Health Ministry not only disseminated information about the campaign but also claimed credit for its execution, illustrating an adeptness for self-promotion. Collaborating with global health entities, Hamas officials facilitated the vaccination of approximately 550,000 Gazans in a compact twelve-day span, reflecting an extraordinary efficiency.
Beyond formal frameworks, Hamas has enlisted local criminal factions to fortify its grip on authority. With the green light from Hamas, crime organizations have taken to imposing taxes and ensuring local order—rewarded with a share of diverted humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, any attempts to foster alternative governance face swift repression; armed Hamas agents intimidate clan leaders attempting independence, with reports of violence that have included targeted killings.
Controlling Aid, Controlling the Narrative
Within this tumultuous landscape, Hamas’s manipulation of humanitarian aid becomes a pivotal resource solidifying its position as the dominant player. The transit of aid into Gaza is fraught with complexity, involving negotiations between Israel, Egypt, and international organizations. Early in the conflict, Hamas would deploy uniformed officers to safeguard aid convoys, though accountability has since faltered. Currently, operatives of Hamas engage in controlling and, at times, attacking these movements. In areas defined by disorder, the absence of clear authority leads to rampant looting, while Hamas enforces order in places where it wishes to retain influence.
This prevailing control extends to orchestrating a narrative around the ongoing chaos. By linking humanitarian aid to their governance while simultaneously blaming Israel for the turmoil, Hamas sustains a perception of necessity and power, fostering compliance among the population. However, emerging insights into public sentiment reflect discontent; a document released by Hamas’s internal security apparatus revealed manipulated data aiming to inflate support. Alarmingly, a recent poll indicated a mere 7% of Gazans desire Hamas to retain control following the war.
What Needs to Be Done?
The elimination of Hamas’s key leaders—most notably Sinwar, whose uncompromising approach has obstructed the group’s displacement—provides a unique opportunity for transformative change. Seizing this moment requires the international community to establish a robust governance alternative, oriented toward ousting Hamas’s pervasive civil control over Gaza. This endeavor demands concerted actions that include:
- Highlighting Hamas’s shadow governance: It is crucial to illuminate how Hamas has maintained authority through effective governance practices, thereby necessitating preemptive measures to dismantle this control post-conflict.
- Undermining Hamas propaganda: Counteracting the movement’s manipulation of public perception can create a fertile environment for genuine alternatives to emerge amidst waning support for Hamas.
- Preventing Hamas control of humanitarian aid: Establishing mechanisms—potentially involving armed protection—will ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches those in need without being tainted by Hamas involvement.
- Maintaining the Gaza bureaucracy: Integrating non-combatant bureaucrats into a new governance structure ensures that essential services can continue without facilitating Hamas’s return to power.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of Gaza, the time for action is now. The future hinges on confronting the existing power dynamics and establishing a foothold for a more hopeful governance model that aligns with the needs and aspirations of the people.
