Big Picture: Can Sri Lanka Sidestep Another Collapse?
The narrative is tantalizingly poised: both squads harbor ambitions of reaching the World Test Championship final, yet neither has staked a claim just yet. South Africa, although they showcased overwhelming dominance in obliterating Sri Lanka by a staggering 233 runs in Durban, find themselves navigating the tricky waters of a points system that offers no favors for blowout victories.
Descending into Gqeberha, the Proteas brim with confidence; a triumph here would illuminate their road to the final like a beacon. Conversely, a win for Sri Lanka would not just keep their dreams alive, but it would also liberate them from the shackles of relying on other match outcomes, provided they can sweep Australia in their upcoming encounters.
Yet, at the core of their aspirations lies a pressing imperative: to exhibit a far sterner resistance than they did in Durban. The batting lineup, it seems, must steady itself; another disintegration under pressure would spell disaster. Various players have voiced their struggles against the towering South African quicks, especially on surfaces that offer unpredictable bounce—a far cry from the more familiar territories at home. The coastal conditions, while less menacing than those found in the Highveld, have proven an unexpected hurdle. With Gqeberha’s forecast promising sunshine and breezes, the Sri Lankans cling to the hope that a drying pitch may breathe life into their spinners’ efforts.
In their previous fixture, South Africa’s batting line surrendered for a mere 191 at Kingsmead. However, with the likes of Temba Bavuma and Tristan Stubbs entering this match in formidable form, paired with Aiden Markram’s promising innings, they aspire to rebound brilliantly.
Yet questions loom over South Africa’s bowling composition, marked by the absence of both Wiaan Mulder and Gerald Coetzee. Still, spearheaded by Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen, who collectively captured 14 wickets in the preceding Test, they grasp the chance to solidify their grip on the series.
Form Guide
South Africa: WWWWD (last five Tests, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: LWWWL
In the Spotlight: Tristan Stubbs and Lahiru Kumara
At just 24 years old, Tristan Stubbs might view Test cricket as an exhilarating adventure. Eleven innings into his nascent career, he boasts two centuries and a half-century, averaging an impressive 43.90. While Bavuma hesitated in his pursuit of a hundred at Kingsmead, Stubbs galloped through the 90s, benefitting from an early reprieve at 33 yet maintaining an aggressive stance that complemented Bavuma’s approach. As he returns to his hometown for his inaugural Test, he relishes the chance to bolster his remarkable start.
On the flip side lies Lahiru Kumara, whose discipline may sometimes waver, but his velocity is undeniable. Last seen as the most threatening bowler at Kingsmead, he stands on the brink of joining an elite club within Sri Lankan cricket history. To bend the milestone of 100 Test wickets—a feat achieved by only four seamers before him—he requires but a solitary wicket. For Sri Lanka to level the series, Kumara must shatter that barrier decisively.
Team News
South Africa has finalized their XI with Ryan Rickelton and Dane Paterson stepping in for Mulder and Coetzee, thus opting for six batsmen, three seamers, and a spinner.
South Africa: 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Ryan Rickelton, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Dane Paterson
Sri Lanka, too, faces critical choices regarding their lineup. Echoing their strategy from earlier this year at Lord’s, could they unleash four fast bowlers? The possibility looms large, especially with Milan Rathnayake’s batting prowess in mind. Additionally, they’re eager to incorporate Oshada Fernando, who recently impressed with scores of 122 and 80 for Sri Lanka A in South Africa and a solid 75 not out at this venue in 2019. Yet, the question remains: who to sideline?
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Dimuth Karunanayake, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Prabath Jayasuriya / Milan Rathnayake, 9 Vishwa Fernando, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara
Pitch and Conditions
The day prior to the contest, a protective hessian enveloped the playing surface, aimed at curbing premature moisture evaporation, with forecasts promising dry winds by afternoon. The playing field retains considerable grass cover, awaiting the groundsman’s decision on the final cut. Forecasts predict prevailing westerly winds throughout the match days, beckoning teams to bat first and exploit the deteriorating conditions as they evolve. Notably, the prediction suggests no rain throughout the five-day stretch.
Stats and Trivia
- If Kumara captures three more wickets in Gqeberha, he will surpass the wicket tallies of Dilhara Fernando (100) and Lasith Malinga (101), solidifying his place as the third-highest wicket-taker in Sri Lankan seam history.
- During their first encounter in Gqeberha back in 2016, Sri Lanka faced a setback, succumbing by 206 runs, yet they celebrated victory in their latest showdown at the venue, clinching it by eight wickets in 2019.
- Remarkably, Stubbs has a knack for getting off to strong starts; he has reached 20 runs in nine of his eleven innings.
Quotes
“In structuring our lineup, we are confident that runs on the board allow us the luxury of time to claim 20 wickets. It might take longer; the pitch may not echo Durban’s nature. Yet, with its current grass cover, I believe there remains potential for our seamers. Furthermore, should conditions shift unfavorably for pace, Keshav Maharaj’s spin could be pivotal. Thus, whether through seam or spin, our success remains attainable under these conditions.” – South Africa captain Temba Bavuma
“When we juxtapose this cycle against the last, our improvement is stark. I’m satisfied with our boys’ performances. Should we fall short of the finals this time, we must be primed to perform even better in the next.” – Sri Lanka captain Dhananjaya de Silva
