In an intricate web of geopolitical maneuvering, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Türkiye emerges not as an unfathomable enigma akin to Winston Churchill’s 1939 characterization of the Soviet Union, but certainly as a nation whose foreign policy unfurls in complex patterns. Last week, the surprising announcement came that Türkiye had received an invitation to join the BRICS. Questions buzzed through the international diplomatic circles like bees in a hive: how does a NATO member like Türkiye step into the sphere dominated by its erstwhile competitors, Russia and China?
Erdoğan’s unexpected moves are reminiscent of his 2019 intervention in Libya’s chaotic civil war, a daring venture aimed at preventing Khalifa Haftar from seizing the capital, Tripoli. In a fresh twist, Erdoğan is now attempting to reconcile two allies in Africa, Somalia and Ethiopia, whose ties have frayed over Ethiopia’s controversial acknowledgment of Somaliland’s independence, a gesture tied to maritime access. This diplomatic puzzle traces back to a time when Somalia lay abandoned by nations fleeing the escalating menace of al-Shabaab terrorism. Erdoğan was a rare beacon of support, with his landmark visit in 2011, followed by an embassy opening in 2016. His outreach to Ethiopia via drone supplies in 2021 strengthened both nations’ military position against rebel threats.
Thus, Türkiye positions itself as a rather impartial mediator, albeit with leanings toward Somalia, especially after signing a defense pact with Mogadishu earlier this year. Erdoğan, an opportunistic strategist, seizes unexpected openings with finesse.
At first glance, Erdoğan’s African policy might seem conventional; yet, as a proud G20 member, Türkiye engages—a strategy increasingly mirrored by other global powers seeking influence on the continent, not least to garner support within the United Nations. This weekend, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set to preside over a Türkiye-Africa Ministerial Review Conference, gathering representatives from 14 African states in anticipation of the fourth Türkiye-Africa summit slated for 2026.
This ambitious outreach echoes through history—since 1998, Türkiye has amplified its diplomatic presence across Africa, watching its embassies swell from a mere 12 to an impressive 44. For context, the number of African embassies in Ankara surged from 10 in 2008 to 38 today. As Erdoğan transitioned from Prime Minister to President from 2003 to 2014, he has ventured to 31 African nations.
The growth of trade relations between Türkiye and Africa is noteworthy: from a modest $5.4 billion in 2003 to an impressive $40.7 billion by 2022. Such investments—totaling $6 billion, with a focus on infrastructure, healthcare, and education—are complemented by 1,296 Turkish construction projects worth an astonishing $82.6 billion on the continent.
While Erdoğan enjoys a reputation as an astute user of soft power, expanding Türkiye’s clout without courting the colonial backlash other nations have faced, his military footprint has expanded significantly. Echoing through the corridors of international relations, Ali Bilgic, a prominent professor of International Relations, asserts that Türkiye’s assertive strategies, like military installations in Somalia and the provision of arms to combatting nations across crises-ridden West Africa, showcase its burgeoning influence.
Nevertheless, the delicate act of diplomatic balancing is fraught with complications. Ethiopia’s mounting anxieties regarding Türkiye’s steadfast alliance with Somalia, specifically regarding military aid, risks unraveling Ankara’s mediation attempts.
Simultaneously, these strategic foreign policy maneuvers do not exist in a vacuum. The dynamics strain Türkiye’s relations with NATO allies and its standing within the European Union. Erdoğan’s potential BRICS membership might not seem at odds with NATO; rather, it reflects his multifaceted approach—engaging in realist diplomacy that acknowledges no permanent foes, merely transient partnerships.
The kaleidoscopic nature of Erdoğan’s governance further complicates perceptions. Türkiye’s façade of democracy veils an increasingly authoritarian grip, with the Justice and Development Party consolidating power through contentious constitutional transformations and silencing dissent. In the backdrop lies the contentious legacy of Fethullah Gülen and his Hizmet movement—once allies with Erdoğan, central to his narrative of political opposition and an alleged coup attempt in 2016. The partition of his domestic and external ambitions is palpable as Africa becomes a battleground for influence, with Erdoğan pressuring African nations to curtail Hizmet’s presence, thereby enhancing his leverage.
Despite the overarching narrative of trade, investment, and humanitarian efforts, Türkiye’s expansion into Africa appears to be as much about curtailing the influence of regional rivals, like Egypt and the UAE, as it is about genuine partnerships. Each military agreement, drone contract, and foreign visit signal Erdoğan’s aspiration for Türkiye to emerge as a dominant global player.
Peter Fabricius, Consultant, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria
