The Misconceptions of the “China Threat” in Japan-China Relations
Disentangling Myths from Reality
In the complex labyrinth of international relations, particularly between Japan and China, a persistent narrative has emerged: the “China threat theory.” Often framed as China’s unilateral aggression towards Japan, this theory hinges on two pivotal misconceptions that demand scrutiny. International relations expert Izumikawa Yuki expertly unmasks these fallacies, shedding light on a more nuanced understanding of the geopolitical landscape.
First, the Senkaku Islands—known as Diaoyu Islands in China—are frequently claimed as unequivocally Japanese territory, a belief that underpins the notion of a Chinese violation. Second, the sentiment that should China resort to violence in a bid to reclaim Taiwan, Japan would be ethically and militarily compelled to intervene, thus positioning itself as a protector of Taiwan’s sovereignty. This prevailing wisdom, however, falters under critical historical and legal examination.
Revisiting History: A Foundation for Understanding
During a recent lecture at Okinawa International University, Izumikawa reflected on the changing tides of Japan-China relations since a significant downturn in 2012, when Japan’s “nationalization” of the Senkaku Islands ignited tensions. For many younger individuals, this complex relationship now appears almost an innate facet of international diplomacy. Yet, as Izumikawa elucidates through historical context, such animosity is far from inevitable.
Back in 1999, when Izumikawa was a university student, a vibrant enthusiasm for Chinese language and culture thrived in Japan. High-profile exchanges, such as Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Japan in 2007, showcased moments of camaraderie overshadowed by the weight of history. Yet, the shadows of past conflicts, including the First Sino-Japanese War, loom large over the current landscape.
The “China Threat Theory”: A Deeper Examination
The apex of the “China threat theory” lies not merely in national narratives but in a palpable shift in Japan’s defense policies – a southwest pivot of the Self-Defense Forces has emerged, reflective of a growing unease. Such militaristic posture requires dissection, not just of motivations but of facts.
Most notably, the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands are not the black-and-white paradigm often portrayed. Here, the distinction between territorial waters, contiguous zones, and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) is critical. According to international law set forth in various conventions, Japan’s claims over these waters are more nuanced than often reported. Indeed, as Chinese vessels navigate these zones, they do so within a framework that allows for such activities without breaching legality.
The implications of media narratives around these maritime activities also warrant scrutiny. Many reports sensationalize the presence of Chinese government ships, neglecting to clarify the legal frameworks in place—this half-truth nurtures an atmosphere ripe for misinterpretation and fear.
Taiwan: Complexities of Sovereignty and the Embedded Promise
Turning to the notion of “Taiwan contingency,” Izumikawa underscores the precarious nature of Japan’s intervening stance. While the term lacks a definitive interpretation, it broadly reflects a potential military engagement in response to a Chinese assault on Taiwan. Japan’s historical relationship with Taiwan—from the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895 through post-war negotiations—renders any simplistic interpretations dangerous and misleading.
The normalization of Japan-China relations in 1972 introduced formal language regarding Taiwan’s status that rejects the notion of it as an independent entity vying for recognition. Prime Minister Abe’s assertion that a Taiwan conflict would trigger a Japan contingency directly challenges the foundational promise made during these diplomatic dialogues—namely, Japan’s vow to respect the One-China policy. This contradiction raises the specter of a Japan ensnared in a conflict it has vowed to navigate with restraint.
Broader Implications: The Path Forward
As tensions escalate and rhetoric intensifies, understanding the intricate web of history and legal frameworks becomes imperative. Recognizing the past is essential—not just to dispel the “China threat theory,” but also to safeguard peace and prevent Okinawa from becoming a contested battlefield once more.
Izumikawa’s insights challenge us to transcend superficial narratives and engage deeply with the complex realities of Japan-China relations, advocating for diplomatic engagement rather than militaristic bravado. Only through careful navigation of this terrain can both nations aspire to restore a semblance of trust and cooperation, ensuring mutual security in an increasingly turbulent world.
This analysis is adapted from a two-part series originally published in the Okinawa Times on June 19 and 20, 2024.
