Alaska’s electoral saga reached its denouement on Saturday, as the state review board officially certified the results, delivering a vivid tableau of the political landscape. Let’s unravel the intricate threads of this election’s outcome through five compelling observations:
The Margin of Rejection for Ranked Choice Voting Wider than Before
In a notable shift, the rejection of the repeal of Alaska’s open primary and ranked choice voting system expanded its margin. The votes against Ballot Measure 2 surpassed those in favor by 737—an uptick of 73 since the unofficial tallies were finalized on November 20.
Republican U.S. Representative-elect Nick Begich defeated Democrat Mary Peltola with a margin of 7,876 votes post-ranked choice tabulation—somewhat narrower than prior estimates.
Meanwhile, in the state Senate, a stalemate persisted, with five Democrats and five Republicans asserting their positions, keeping the partisan balance steady at 11 Republicans to 9 Democrats. The Alaska House saw the election of 21 Republicans, 14 Democrats, and five independents—an adjustment revealing one less Republican and one additional Democrat compared to the outgoing Legislature.
Voters rallied behind Ballot Measure 1, with approval soaring nearly 16 percentage points. This measure will incrementally boost the minimum wage to $15 per hour by July 2027, enforce mandatory paid sick leave for all workers, and prohibit employers from coercing attendance at meetings that delve into political and religious discourse.
Trump’s Alaskan Stronghold: A Fortified but Eroding Red
In a striking display, President-elect Donald Trump carved out a 13.13 percentage point victory in Alaska—an improvement over his 2020 performance. This margin exceeds his national popular vote lead, currently hovering at 1.55 percentage points, marking the 15th consecutive win for a Republican presidential candidate in the state’s clutch of three Electoral College votes.
Despite retaining its red status, Alaska’s Republican preference appears to be softening, ranking 22nd nationwide in Republican dominance over Democrats. This signals a significant shift; Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris has dwindled compared to his predecessors’ escapades since Richard Nixon’s era, when Alaska last dipped this low in comparative Republican prowess.
Since the turn of the millennium, the tides have shifted—though Bush’s 2000 victory showcased Alaska as a Republican bastion, it has since slipped down the rankings: eighth in 2004, sixth in 2008, and progressively declining to twentieth in 2020.
A Disheartening Drop in Electoral Turnout
The electoral fervor waned, evidenced by a drop in ballots cast—340,981 this election cycle compared to 361,400 four years prior. With over 15,000 new registrants, the turnout percentage plummeted from 60.67% to 55.8%. This oddity arises from a quirk in voter registration, where, despite high registration rates, actual eligible voters are fewer due to outdated rolls that fail to reflect individuals who’ve left the state.
Rural districts, particularly in the north and west, experienced sharper declines than the state average. House District 40, encompassing the North Slope and Northwest Arctic boroughs, mirrored this trend, with a staggering 28% decrease in ballots cast—a drop from 4,677 to 3,362 votes since the last election.
A Geographic Redistribution of Political Power
The political landscape saw seismic shifts—notably in Anchorage, where Democrats, buoyed by Harris’s popularity, seized three of six predominantly south Anchorage districts, outperforming Trump across the city.
Contrastingly, Trump held firm in rural spots, reclaiming House District 40 with a nearly 10-point margin after having lost it to Biden in 2020. In the distinctive Bering Strait and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta regions, he trimmed previous Democratic strongholds. Meanwhile, Southeast Alaska’s House District 1, which includes Ketchikan, trended more Republican than four years earlier, while Juneau’s Mendenhall Valley pivoted further Democratic.
In the stretches of the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna boroughs, Republicans still stood tall, ensuring crucial wins statewide.
A Collective Celebration for Conservatives and Progressives Alike
The political winds have boon for Alaska’s Republicans: Trump’s victory ushers in a greater likelihood of favorable resource development policies under a friendlier White House. Furthermore, Begich’s triumph revives the all-Republican congressional representation that Alaska has known since 1981, a brief exception being Peltola’s tenure in the House and Begich’s uncle, Mark, in the Senate.
In the Senate chamber, a long-awaited resurgence of conservative Republicans is poised to reshape the landscape of party dynamics. Though the final breakdown remains in flux, the burgeoning minority is set to grow from three to six members, reigniting their influence within legislative committees.
Conversely, Alaska’s Democrats faced a bittersweet narrative—Peltola’s groundbreaking win in 2022 cast a long shadow over her recent loss. However, prospects gleam for Democratic representation with both chambers hinting at forming predominantly Democratic majorities—while remaining grounded in bipartisan cooperation.
Finally, both ballot measures conferred victories upon the progressive camp, who championed labor-backed initiatives, affirming their stance against the repeal of ranked choice voting. The road ahead brims with potential, with shifting allegiances and alliances as the 34th Alaska Legislature prepares to convene on January 21, 2025.
